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Research project · 2026 · an explorable page: every figure below is live

The Agent Stack

A reference model, composition laws, and a measurement agenda for agentic AI systems. Read it like a paper. Operate it like an instrument.

Hannah B. Pasandi and et al. · h.pasandi@berkeley.edu
1UC Berkeley · 2[Partner institution]

Companion artifacts of this project: the AgentTrace measurement schema, and the AgentMetrics workshop proposed for SIGMETRICS 2027. Both are introduced in the plan below.

8 layers, 2 planes 6 laws, 5 live below 25 works surveyed 5 research axes 10 open problems
teal boundaries: failure modes documented in prior work · amber boundaries: predicted by this model, not yet studied
In one minute

The field has facts. It needs laws.

MAP surveyed how practitioners build agents. MAST cataloged how curated systems fail. HAL standardized evaluation. vLLM and Agentix made execution fast. None of them answers three questions: what the system is, why it behaves the way it does, and what the field should measure next. This project answers all three, with a layered reference model, a composition calculus, and a meta-measurement fitted on public data alone.

01 Evidence: the canon 02 Model: the stack 03 Laws 04 Experiments 05 Instruments & constants 06 Agenda & plan

The page follows the argument in order. The ten open problems appear at the end because they are conclusions of the analysis, not premises of it.

Problem statement

The gap, why now, and what the entire literature missed

Objective. This project establishes the measurement science of AI agent systems: not whether agents can do tasks, but how well they work, how consistently, at what cost, and with what statistical rigor. The problem. The field can build and deploy agents, but it cannot yet characterize how they behave once deployed. No shared measurement methodology, reporting standard, or open trace corpus exists for agent systems.

Why now. Deployment is outpacing understanding, and the distance is measurable. Gartner projects that 40 percent of enterprise applications will embed task-specific AI agents by the end of 2026, up from less than 5 percent in 2025. On the other side of the ledger, MAP surveyed 306 practitioners across 26 domains and analyzed 86 deployed or pilot systems: 61.3 percent of deployed agents were never compared against any baseline, 74.2 percent are evaluated by manual human inspection, and practitioners rank reliability, scalability, latency, and cost as their single largest challenge.

What the whole literature missed, and why it matters. Benchmarks measure task accuracy but not workload structure. Reliability work, from pass^k to HAL, runs on benchmark logs, not production data. Serving research fabricates its workloads, because no public agent execution trace exists. Field studies report self-reported percentages, not distributions, tails, or time series. And nothing ties the pieces together. Measurement is the precondition for systems science: the Borg, Alibaba, and Azure trace releases each seeded a decade of research, and agents have no equivalent. This project builds the model, the laws, and the instruments that close the gap.

40% of enterprise apps with agents by end 2026 (Gartner) 61.3% of deployed agents never compared to a baseline (MAP) 74.2% evaluated by manual inspection (MAP) 0 public in-the-wild agent trace corpora
01 · Evidence

The canon: twenty-five works, surveyed and mapped

The literature review as cards instead of paragraphs. Each card opens to its core finding and the way this project uses it. Full citations live in the paper.

Select any card to open it.

What the survey shows: four patterns

Reading the twenty-five works together, four regularities emerge. The chart below is computed directly from the cards above.

≈2 yrs

Building precedes measuring

Engines cluster in 2023 to 2024. Studies and methodology cluster in 2025 to 2026. The field is entering its measurement phase now.

2 / 8

Two layers absorb most attention

Model and orchestration dominate the literature. Context and memory has almost no coverage of any kind.

3 / 3

Failures are boundary phenomena

Every documented failure category sits at an interface between layers, none inside a layer.

5 works

Scalar metrics are the shared critique

Five works independently show that a single accuracy number misleads. None yet replaces it.

PatternEvidence in the canonConsequence for this project
Building precedes measuringEngines peak in 2023 to 2024; studies, harnesses, and methodology peak in 2025 to 2026.The measurement phase has begun; this project supplies its model, laws, and instruments.
Attention concentrates at two layersThe coverage map below shows dense columns at the model and orchestration layers and a nearly empty row at context and memory.The model directs effort to the empty cells, beginning with context-state failures (class B2).
Failures live at boundariesAll three documented failure categories in MAST map onto layer interfaces.The boundary principle, and four predicted failure classes B1 to B4 at the unstudied interfaces.
Single numbers misleadFive works reach this conclusion independently, from pass^k collapse to cost-blind evaluation.Law 2 replaces the scalar with the solvability spectrum; AgentReport makes the replacement reportable.
02 · Model

The reference model: eight layers, seven boundaries

The layers and boundaries are defined by this project; they are a contribution, not an inheritance. The model earns its keep by mapping: every surveyed work lands on a layer or a boundary. At three boundaries, prior work (MAST) has documented the failure modes. At the remaining four, the model predicts failure classes that no study has yet examined.

Select a layer to open its dossier: what is established, what is open, and the key works.

failure modes documented (MAST) failure modes predicted, not yet studied

Coverage analysis: where the literature is dense and where it is empty

Each cell scores published coverage from 0 to 3, across five kinds of work. Select a cell. The empty cells are the point.

0 · gap1 · sparse2 · active3 · dense
Select any cell to read its status.
03 · Laws

The composition calculus

Six laws govern how reliability, cost, and latency compose across steps, retries, verifiers, and agents. Five are implemented below from their closed forms; the tail law requires simulation. Each control sets a parameter of the law, and every readout follows from it.

Law 1

The horizon law

Under a constant per-minute hazard rate λ, survival over a task of length L is exponential. The 50% horizon is where half of attempts still succeed.

S(L) = e^(−λ·L)  ·  h₅₀ = ln 2 / λ
34.7 min
50% horizon h₅₀
30%
survival at 60 min
1%
survival at 4 hours
Fit target: METR task-length data, per domain. H1: λ is a stable, estimable constant per domain.
Law 2

The solvability spectrum

Each task has a hidden per-run success probability q. Reliability curves are moment transforms of the distribution of q. The three worlds below share the same accuracy, 60%. Watch them separate.

pass@1 = E[q]  ·  passᵏ = E[qᵏ]  ·  pass@k = 1 − E[(1−q)ᵏ]
60%
pass@1, all worlds
1.7%
pass⁸, coin-flip
14%
pass⁸, messy middle
47%
pass⁸, bimodal
One accuracy number keeps the first moment of the distribution and discards the rest. H2: benchmarks are bimodal; production is not.
Law 3

The verification law

A generator succeeds with probability p per attempt. A verifier accepts correct work at rate t and incorrect work at rate f. Retry until accepted.

P(correct | accepted) = p·t / (p·t + (1−p)·f)  ·  E[attempts] = 1 / (p·t + (1−p)·f)
79%
accepted output correct
2.9×
expected attempts (cost)
Formalizes the verification failure category in MAST and the human-verification burden in MAP. H3: measured (t, f) predicts end-to-end reliability.
Law 5

The retry-tail simulator

A program runs n steps. Each attempt fails with probability q and is retried up to R times. Attempt costs vary modestly. Watch a modest system grow a heavy tail, then check the p99.

·
median cost
·
p99 cost
·
p99 / median
·
programs failed
3,000 simulated programs, seeded and reproducible. H5: agent cost tails are policy-induced, not model-induced. The fit target is real trace data.
Law 6

The coordination threshold

n agents vote. With probability ρ their errors are perfectly correlated; otherwise independent. Coordination also multiplies token cost.

P = ρ·p + (1−ρ)·P_majority(n, p)  ·  cost = n · (1 + overhead)
60%
one agent
62%
committee
4.5×
token cost
A simplified mixture model, stated as such. Production reports put multi-agent near 15× the tokens of chat; MAST finds gains often minimal. H6: measured correlations explain when committees win.
04 · Experiments

Three controlled experiments, fitted on public data

No private dataset sits on the critical path. The laws are fitted on public artifacts, then completed by three experiments.

E1 · variance

Decompose the randomness

Nested design over sampling seed, serving condition (default vs batch-invariant kernels), environment repetition, and prompt paraphrase. The first separation of model, substrate, environment, and specification variance.

E2 · drift

Replay the world

Freeze agents and replay archived environment snapshots, month by month, to estimate decay rates for the drift boundary. Retrospective replay means no waiting for calendar time.

E3 · verifiers

Price the judges

Measure (t, f) for unit tests, LLM judges, and human spot checks across domains. Validate the verification law end to end.

Public evidence base: MAST-Data HAL logs METR runs τ-bench SWE-bench WebArena GAIA BFCL AgentDojo AIOpsLab

05 · Instruments

Two instruments and the constants dashboard

Demo

Token amplification cascade

One user request becomes many calls. Each step makes one model call plus tool calls; carrying context makes every later call heavier. Press play.

18
calls per request
·
total tokens
·
× one chat turn (800 tok)
The amplification factor is a proposed workload metric. Fit target: real traces via the measurement plane.
Demo

Drift observatory

Freeze an agent. Let the world move. Scrub the months and watch success decay. Illustrative synthetic data; experiment E2 measures the real curve.

74%
success at freeze
·
at month 6

The constants of agentic computing

The table the project exists to fill. Four rows are wired to the widgets above, so the dashboard moves as you explore; the rest await experiments E1 to E3.

ConstantValueStatusSource
50% task horizon h₅₀34.7 minlive from Law 1METR fits, per domain
Solvability spectrum shape?to be measuredLaw 2 fits on benchmark reruns
Verifier accepted-correct rate79%live from Law 3Experiment E3
Cost tail index (p99 / median)·live from Law 5Experiment E1 + traces
Multi-agent break-even ρ?to be measuredLaw 6 fits
Drift half-life, per domain9 molive from the observatoryExperiment E2
Variance shares: model / substrate / environment / spec? / ? / ? / ?to be measuredExperiment E1
06 · Agenda

Gap analysis across five research axes

The five axes are an organizing framework defined by this project; they emerge from where the twenty-five surveyed works cluster. For each axis, Established lists published results with their sources, and Open lists what no published work yet establishes: these are the targets this project sets for itself and for the community. Measurement science remains an axis of its own because it is the cross-cutting plane the other four consume.

Ten open problems, as conclusions

Each problem follows from the model, the coverage analysis, or a law. They close the argument; they do not open it.

Execution

Nine months with three students; the floor is thinking and writing

The three experiments are independent, so they parallelize perfectly across students. The model, the calculus, and the writing do not parallelize; they set the floor. Retrospective environment replay removes the calendar-time constraint from the drift experiment.

Model + calculus
E1 variance (student A)
E2 drift (student B)
E3 verifiers (student C)
Synthesis + gap analysis
Write · circulate · submit
month 13579
TeamDurationWhat changes
2 PhD students12 monthsExperiments run in sequence; slowest realistic plan.
3 PhD students9 monthsE1, E2, E3 in parallel; the default plan above.
4 students + postdoc7 monthsAdds fit-and-analysis bandwidth; modeling and writing set the floor.

Budget for the nine-month default: about $420K. Minimum-viable at $180K: one student, experiment E1 only, laws fitted on existing public logs. Venues: SIGMETRICS/POMACS or SOSP/OSDI for the results; a CACM view piece for the agenda; community debut at the proposed AgentMetrics workshop, SIGMETRICS 2027. The AgentTrace schema ships with the measurement plane in month 3.

Team · tentative

One anchor per layer

The stack dictates the guest list. This team is tentative: every entry below is a prospective collaborator to be invited, and no participation has been confirmed.

Compute & GPU

NVIDIA inference performance · Google TPU serving · Meta AI infrastructure

L1E1B4

Serving & determinism

Agentix / vLLM authors · Azure Research systems · Mooncake team · Thinking Machines

L2B1

Orchestration & context

DSPy / GEPA authors · MemGPT founders · BFCL lead

L4 to L6

Protocols & networking

MCP team (Anthropic) · A2A team (Google) · OpenTelemetry GenAI leads

L7narrow waist

Agents for systems & networks

UIUC systems reliability (Tianyin Xu's group; Yinfang Chen, AIOpsLab) · MSR AIOps · IBM ITBench · datacenter network diagnosis groups

axes 2 and 4trust calculus

Theory & queueing

Mor Harchol-Balter (CMU) · Adam Wierman (Caltech) · Christina Lee Yu (Cornell)

lawstails

Evaluation science

Princeton HAL group · UIUC benchmarking · Sierra (τ-bench) · ETH security · METR

planesspectra

Frontier labs

Anthropic Clio & agent engineering · OpenAI evaluation teams

L8usage measurement

Field-study anchors

MAP and MAST author teams: Berkeley Sky Lab and IBM

foundationco-authors
Cite

BibTeX

@misc{agentstack2026,
  title  = {The Agent Stack: A Reference Model, Composition Laws,
            and a Measurement Agenda for Agentic AI Systems},
  author = {Pasandi, Hannah B. and et al.},
  year   = {2026},
  note   = {Project page: https://your-domain.github.io/agent-stack}
}