A reference model, composition laws, and a measurement agenda for agentic AI systems. Read it like a paper. Operate it like an instrument.
Companion artifacts of this project: the AgentTrace measurement schema, and the AgentMetrics workshop proposed for SIGMETRICS 2027. Both are introduced in the plan below.
MAP surveyed how practitioners build agents. MAST cataloged how curated systems fail. HAL standardized evaluation. vLLM and Agentix made execution fast. None of them answers three questions: what the system is, why it behaves the way it does, and what the field should measure next. This project answers all three, with a layered reference model, a composition calculus, and a meta-measurement fitted on public data alone.
The page follows the argument in order. The ten open problems appear at the end because they are conclusions of the analysis, not premises of it.
Objective. This project establishes the measurement science of AI agent systems: not whether agents can do tasks, but how well they work, how consistently, at what cost, and with what statistical rigor. The problem. The field can build and deploy agents, but it cannot yet characterize how they behave once deployed. No shared measurement methodology, reporting standard, or open trace corpus exists for agent systems.
Why now. Deployment is outpacing understanding, and the distance is measurable. Gartner projects that 40 percent of enterprise applications will embed task-specific AI agents by the end of 2026, up from less than 5 percent in 2025. On the other side of the ledger, MAP surveyed 306 practitioners across 26 domains and analyzed 86 deployed or pilot systems: 61.3 percent of deployed agents were never compared against any baseline, 74.2 percent are evaluated by manual human inspection, and practitioners rank reliability, scalability, latency, and cost as their single largest challenge.
What the whole literature missed, and why it matters. Benchmarks measure task accuracy but not workload structure. Reliability work, from pass^k to HAL, runs on benchmark logs, not production data. Serving research fabricates its workloads, because no public agent execution trace exists. Field studies report self-reported percentages, not distributions, tails, or time series. And nothing ties the pieces together. Measurement is the precondition for systems science: the Borg, Alibaba, and Azure trace releases each seeded a decade of research, and agents have no equivalent. This project builds the model, the laws, and the instruments that close the gap.
The literature review as cards instead of paragraphs. Each card opens to its core finding and the way this project uses it. Full citations live in the paper.
Reading the twenty-five works together, four regularities emerge. The chart below is computed directly from the cards above.
Engines cluster in 2023 to 2024. Studies and methodology cluster in 2025 to 2026. The field is entering its measurement phase now.
Model and orchestration dominate the literature. Context and memory has almost no coverage of any kind.
Every documented failure category sits at an interface between layers, none inside a layer.
Five works independently show that a single accuracy number misleads. None yet replaces it.
| Pattern | Evidence in the canon | Consequence for this project |
|---|---|---|
| Building precedes measuring | Engines peak in 2023 to 2024; studies, harnesses, and methodology peak in 2025 to 2026. | The measurement phase has begun; this project supplies its model, laws, and instruments. |
| Attention concentrates at two layers | The coverage map below shows dense columns at the model and orchestration layers and a nearly empty row at context and memory. | The model directs effort to the empty cells, beginning with context-state failures (class B2). |
| Failures live at boundaries | All three documented failure categories in MAST map onto layer interfaces. | The boundary principle, and four predicted failure classes B1 to B4 at the unstudied interfaces. |
| Single numbers mislead | Five works reach this conclusion independently, from pass^k collapse to cost-blind evaluation. | Law 2 replaces the scalar with the solvability spectrum; AgentReport makes the replacement reportable. |
The layers and boundaries are defined by this project; they are a contribution, not an inheritance. The model earns its keep by mapping: every surveyed work lands on a layer or a boundary. At three boundaries, prior work (MAST) has documented the failure modes. At the remaining four, the model predicts failure classes that no study has yet examined.
Select a layer to open its dossier: what is established, what is open, and the key works.
Each cell scores published coverage from 0 to 3, across five kinds of work. Select a cell. The empty cells are the point.
Six laws govern how reliability, cost, and latency compose across steps, retries, verifiers, and agents. Five are implemented below from their closed forms; the tail law requires simulation. Each control sets a parameter of the law, and every readout follows from it.
Under a constant per-minute hazard rate λ, survival over a task of length L is exponential. The 50% horizon is where half of attempts still succeed.
Each task has a hidden per-run success probability q. Reliability curves are moment transforms of the distribution of q. The three worlds below share the same accuracy, 60%. Watch them separate.
A generator succeeds with probability p per attempt. A verifier accepts correct work at rate t and incorrect work at rate f. Retry until accepted.
A program runs n steps. Each attempt fails with probability q and is retried up to R times. Attempt costs vary modestly. Watch a modest system grow a heavy tail, then check the p99.
n agents vote. With probability ρ their errors are perfectly correlated; otherwise independent. Coordination also multiplies token cost.
No private dataset sits on the critical path. The laws are fitted on public artifacts, then completed by three experiments.
Nested design over sampling seed, serving condition (default vs batch-invariant kernels), environment repetition, and prompt paraphrase. The first separation of model, substrate, environment, and specification variance.
Freeze agents and replay archived environment snapshots, month by month, to estimate decay rates for the drift boundary. Retrospective replay means no waiting for calendar time.
Measure (t, f) for unit tests, LLM judges, and human spot checks across domains. Validate the verification law end to end.
Public evidence base: MAST-Data HAL logs METR runs τ-bench SWE-bench WebArena GAIA BFCL AgentDojo AIOpsLab
One user request becomes many calls. Each step makes one model call plus tool calls; carrying context makes every later call heavier. Press play.
Freeze an agent. Let the world move. Scrub the months and watch success decay. Illustrative synthetic data; experiment E2 measures the real curve.
The table the project exists to fill. Four rows are wired to the widgets above, so the dashboard moves as you explore; the rest await experiments E1 to E3.
| Constant | Value | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% task horizon h₅₀ | 34.7 min | live from Law 1 | METR fits, per domain |
| Solvability spectrum shape | ? | to be measured | Law 2 fits on benchmark reruns |
| Verifier accepted-correct rate | 79% | live from Law 3 | Experiment E3 |
| Cost tail index (p99 / median) | · | live from Law 5 | Experiment E1 + traces |
| Multi-agent break-even ρ | ? | to be measured | Law 6 fits |
| Drift half-life, per domain | 9 mo | live from the observatory | Experiment E2 |
| Variance shares: model / substrate / environment / spec | ? / ? / ? / ? | to be measured | Experiment E1 |
The five axes are an organizing framework defined by this project; they emerge from where the twenty-five surveyed works cluster. For each axis, Established lists published results with their sources, and Open lists what no published work yet establishes: these are the targets this project sets for itself and for the community. Measurement science remains an axis of its own because it is the cross-cutting plane the other four consume.
Each problem follows from the model, the coverage analysis, or a law. They close the argument; they do not open it.
The three experiments are independent, so they parallelize perfectly across students. The model, the calculus, and the writing do not parallelize; they set the floor. Retrospective environment replay removes the calendar-time constraint from the drift experiment.
| Team | Duration | What changes |
|---|---|---|
| 2 PhD students | 12 months | Experiments run in sequence; slowest realistic plan. |
| 3 PhD students | 9 months | E1, E2, E3 in parallel; the default plan above. |
| 4 students + postdoc | 7 months | Adds fit-and-analysis bandwidth; modeling and writing set the floor. |
Budget for the nine-month default: about $420K. Minimum-viable at $180K: one student, experiment E1 only, laws fitted on existing public logs. Venues: SIGMETRICS/POMACS or SOSP/OSDI for the results; a CACM view piece for the agenda; community debut at the proposed AgentMetrics workshop, SIGMETRICS 2027. The AgentTrace schema ships with the measurement plane in month 3.
The stack dictates the guest list. This team is tentative: every entry below is a prospective collaborator to be invited, and no participation has been confirmed.
NVIDIA inference performance · Google TPU serving · Meta AI infrastructure
Agentix / vLLM authors · Azure Research systems · Mooncake team · Thinking Machines
DSPy / GEPA authors · MemGPT founders · BFCL lead
MCP team (Anthropic) · A2A team (Google) · OpenTelemetry GenAI leads
UIUC systems reliability (Tianyin Xu's group; Yinfang Chen, AIOpsLab) · MSR AIOps · IBM ITBench · datacenter network diagnosis groups
Mor Harchol-Balter (CMU) · Adam Wierman (Caltech) · Christina Lee Yu (Cornell)
Princeton HAL group · UIUC benchmarking · Sierra (τ-bench) · ETH security · METR
Anthropic Clio & agent engineering · OpenAI evaluation teams
MAP and MAST author teams: Berkeley Sky Lab and IBM
@misc{agentstack2026,
title = {The Agent Stack: A Reference Model, Composition Laws,
and a Measurement Agenda for Agentic AI Systems},
author = {Pasandi, Hannah B. and et al.},
year = {2026},
note = {Project page: https://your-domain.github.io/agent-stack}
}